Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Tour company Thomas Cook warns on profits (AP)

LONDON ? Shares in tour company Thomas Cook lost two-thirds of their value after the company issued a profit warning Tuesday and said it was seeking new agreements with its principal banks, barely a month after announcing a renegotiation of its funding.

Thomas Cook Group PLC shares were down 67 percent at 13.67 pence in late morning trading, after falling as low as 10.17 pence earlier in the session. On July 1, shares had closed at 134.5 pence.

"Legitimate questions will be asked as to whether Thomas Cook can survive long-term," said James Hollins, analyst at Evolution Securities.

Thomas Cook, Europe's No. 2 tour operator behind TUI Travel PLC, announced that it was postponing publication of its full-year results "as a result of deterioration of trading in some areas of the business, and of its cash and liquidity position since its year end."

Cook has lost bookings because of unrest in Tunisia and Egypt and flooding in Bangkok.

"We're operating business as usual," said Sam Weihagen, Thomas Cook's interim chief executive. "Flights are leaving on schedule, shops are open and we're taking bookings."

Wyn Ellis, analyst at Numis Securities, said Thomas Cook's announcement could scare away some customers and alarm suppliers. The company, he said, "faces a difficult near-term future which could lead to significant loss of market share."

Analysts at Panmure Gordon & Co. believed "the group will need a major cash call from its shareholders."

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/britain/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111122/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_britain_thomas_cook

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Hezbollah unravels CIA spy network in Lebanon (AP)

WASHINGTON ? Hezbollah has partially unraveled the CIA's spy network in Lebanon, severely damaging the intelligence agency's ability to gather vital information on the terrorist organization at a tense time in the region, former and current U.S. officials said.

Officials said several foreign spies working for the CIA had been captured by Hezbollah in recent months. The blow to the CIA's operations in Lebanon came after top agency managers were alerted last year to be especially careful handling informants in the Middle East country.

Hezbollah's longtime leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, boasted in June on television he had unmasked at least two CIA spies who had infiltrated the ranks of the organization, which the U.S. considers a terrorist group closely allied with Iran.

Though the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon officially denied the accusation, American officials concede that Nasrallah wasn't lying and the damage spread like a virus as Hezbollah methodically picked off the CIA's informants.

To be sure, some deaths are to be expected in these shadowy spy wars. It's an extremely risky business and people get killed. But the damage to the agency's network in Lebanon has been greater than usual, several former and current U.S. officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about security matters.

The Lebanon crisis is the latest mishap involving CIA counterintelligence, defined as the undermining or manipulating of the enemy's ability to gather information. Former CIA officials have said the once-essential skill has been eroded as the agency shifted from outmaneuvering rival spy agencies to fighting terrorists. In the rush for immediate results, former officers say, tradecraft has suffered.

The most recent high-profile example was the suicide bomber who posed as an informant and killed seven CIA employees and wounded six others in Khost, Afghanistan, in December 2009.

Last year, then-CIA director Leon Panetta said the agency had to maintain "a greater awareness of counterintelligence." But eight months later, Nasrallah let the world know he had bested the CIA, demonstrating that the agency still struggles with this critical aspect of spying and sending a message to those who would betray Hezbollah.

It remains unclear whether anyone has been or will be held responsible in the wake of this counterintelligence disaster or whether the incident will affect the CIA's ability to recruit assets in Lebanon.

CIA officials were warned their spies in Lebanon were vulnerable. Those told include the chief of the unit that supervises Hezbollah operations from CIA headquarters in Langley, Va., and the head of counterintelligence.

Former and current intelligence officials are waiting to see how CIA Director David Petreaus, who took the helm in September, will handle this fiasco. While in the military, the retired four-star developed a reputation for exacting standards and holding people accountable.

"Gen. Petraeus will definitely take care of the failings of his organization. He will deal with it head on and not try to bury it under the carpet," said retired Army Col. Peter Mansoor, the general's former executive officer in Iraq.

In response to AP's questions about what happened in Lebanon, a U.S. official said Hezbollah is a complicated enemy, responsible for killing more Americans than any other terrorist group before September 2001. The agency did not underestimate the organization, the official said.

The CIA's toughest adversaries, like Hezbollah and Iran, have for years been improving their ability to hunt spies, relying on patience and guile to exploit counterintelligence holes.

In 2007, for instance, when Ali-Reza Asgari, a brigadier general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran, disappeared in Turkey, it was assumed that he was either killed or defected. In response, the Iranian government began a painstaking review of foreign travel by its citizens, particularly to places like Turkey where Iranians don't need a visa and could meet with foreign intelligence services.

It didn't take long, a Western intelligence official told the AP, before the U.S., Britain and Israel began losing contact with some of their Iranian spies. In this instance, the Iranians used travel and expense records to figure out who was selling the foreign intelligence services information about its nuclear program.

The State Department last year described Hezbollah as "the most technically capable terrorist group in the world," and the Defense Department estimates it receives between $100 million and $200 million per year in funding from Iran.

Backed by Iran, Hezbollah has built a professional counterintelligence apparatus that Nasrallah ? whom the U.S. government designated an international terrorist a decade ago ? proudly describes as the "spy combat unit." U.S. intelligence officials believe the unit, which is considered formidable and ruthless, went operational around 2004.

Using the latest commercial software, Nasrallah's spy-hunters unit began methodically searching for traitors in Hezbollah's midst. To find them, U.S. officials said, Hezbollah examined cellphone data looking for anomalies. The analysis identified cellphones that, for instance, were used rarely or always from specific locations and only for a short period of time. Then it came down to old-fashioned, shoe-leather detective work: Who in that area had information that might be worth selling to the enemy?

The effort took years but eventually Hezbollah, and later the Lebanese government, began making arrests. By one estimate, 100 Israeli assets were apprehended as the news made headlines across the region in 2009. Some of those suspected Israeli spies worked for telecommunications companies and served in the military.

Back at CIA headquarters, the arrests alarmed senior officials. The agency prepared a study on its own vulnerabilities, U.S. officials said, and the results proved to be prescient.

The analysis concluded that the CIA was susceptible to the same analysis that had compromised the Israelis, the officials said.

CIA managers were instructed to be extra careful about handling sources in Lebanon. A U.S. official said recommendations were issued to counter the potential problem.

But it's unclear what preventive measures were taken by the Hezbollah unit chief or the officer in charge of the Beirut station. Former officials say the Hezbollah unit chief is no stranger to the necessity of counterintelligence and knew the risks. The unit chief has worked overseas in hostile environments like Afghanistan and played an important role in the capture of a top terrorist while stationed in the Persian Gulf region after the attacks of 9/11.

"We've lost a lot of people in Beirut over the years, so everyone should know the drill," said a former Middle East case officer familiar with the situation.

But whatever actions the CIA took, they were not enough. Like the Israelis, bad tradecraft doomed these CIA assets and the agency ultimately failed to protect them, an official said. In some instances, CIA officers fell into predictable patterns when meeting their sources, the official said.

This allowed Hezbollah to identify assets and case officers and unravel at least part of the CIA's spy network in Lebanon. There was also a reluctance to share cases and some files were put in "restricted handling." The designation severely limits the number of people who know the identity of the source but also reduces the number of experts who could spot problems that might lead to their discovery, officials said.

Nasrallah's televised announcement in June ? he called the U.S. Embassy in Beirut a "den of spies" ? was followed by finger-pointing among departments inside the CIA as the spy agency tried figure out what went wrong and contain the damage.

The fate of these CIA assets is unknown. Hezbollah treats spies differently, said Matthew Levitt, a counterterrorism and intelligence expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Studies who is writing a book about the terrorist organization

"It all depends on who these guys were and what they have to say," Levitt said. "Hezbollah has disappeared people before. Others they have kept around."

Who's responsible for the mess in Lebanon? It's not clear. The chief of Hezbollah operations at CIA headquarters continues to run the unit that also focuses on Iranians and Palestinians. The CIA's top counterintelligence officer, who was one of the most senior women in the clandestine service, recently retired after approximately five years on the job.

She is credited with some important cases, including the recent arrests of Russian spies who had been living in the U.S. for years.

Officials said the woman was succeeded by a more experienced operations officer. That officer has held important posts in Moscow, Southeast Asia, Europe and the Balkans ? key frontlines in the agency's spy wars with foreign intelligence services and terrorist organizations.

___

Associated Press Intelligence Writer Kimberly Dozier contributed to this report.

___

Contact the Washington investigative team at DCInvestigations(at)ap.org

Follow Apuzzo and Goldman at http://twitter.com/mattapuzzo and http://twitter.com/goldmandc

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/mideast/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111121/ap_on_go_ot/us_hezbollah_cia

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Ron Paul's strength in Iowa shows it's too soon to write him off (The Christian Science Monitor)

To most pollsters and pundits, any mention of Ron Paul typically comes with an implied asterisk. Whether they say it outright or not, they don?t think the Texas congressman has a chance of being the GOP presidential nominee. Too far outside mainstream, tea party, or born-again socially conservative Republicanism, they say. More libertarian than anything else.

And yet Rep. Paul soldiers on, and you know what? As other candidates ? Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain ? dash forward hare-like only to stumble or be run over by the next new thing, Paul is the perpetual tortoise in the race, mild-mannered, confident and unwavering in his positions (no flip-flopper he), advancing steadily toward the first real test in the Iowa caucuses six weeks from now.

MONITOR QUIZ: Weekly News Quiz for Nov. 13-18, 2011

Consider these recent headlines:

?Ron Paul is for real in Iowa. Seriously.? (Washington Post)

?Niche Voters Giving Paul Momentum in Iowa Polls? (New York Times)

?Ron Paul?s 19 percent in Iowa may indicate a path to the nomination? (Daily Caller)

?GOP outsider Ron Paul gaining traction in Iowa? (Associated Press)

?Ron Paul And Libertarians Can't Be Discounted? (Forbes)

A Bloomberg News poll this past week shows a four-way scrum for the lead in Iowa, with Paul in second place. (Cain gets 20 percent, Paul 19 percent, Mitt Romney 18 percent, and Newt Gingrich 17 percent among likely caucus goers.)

?A caucus state like Iowa is tailor-made to maximize the vote for a candidate like Ron Paul,? University of Virginia Center for Politics director Larry Sabato told The Daily Caller. ?He has a dedicated band of supporters who will show up to vote in three feet of snow.?

That dedication shows up two ways in the latest poll in Iowa

Among likely caucus-goers who say their minds are made up, Paul leads with 32 percent, followed by Romney at 25 percent and former House speaker Gingrich at 17 percent, Bloomberg reports. And Paul?s campaign leads for voter contact, with about two-thirds of respondents saying they?ve heard from his campaign.

?Paul gets labeled a fringe candidate. But in this era of a closely divided electorate, anyone who commands the allegiance that Paul does from an activist libertarian movement must be accounted for in the political calculus,? pollster John Zogby writes in his regular Forbes column.

Dedicated allegiance has paid off for Paul in a string of straw polls.

The State Column, an online source of state political news, notes that Paul took second place in the Ames Straw Poll in August (finishing just 1 percentage point behind Bachmann), and he won a Values Voter Summit straw poll in October and a California Republican Party straw poll in September.

He also won an Ohio GOP poll with 53 percent of the votes, an Iowa straw poll at the National Federation of Republican Assemblies in Des Moines with 82 percent of the votes, and an Illinois straw poll with 52 percent of the vote ??? more than Romney or Cain.

RECOMMENDED: 10 things to know about Ron Paul

Much of that can be attributed to a hearty band of Paul loyalists ? many of them young supporters ? who do the most important thing in such contests: show up and vote.

In a way, Mr. Zogby points out, Paul is like Ralph Nader, even though he?s running as a major party candidate and not a third party outlier.

?In both cases, the support for Paul and Nader is a rejection of both parties,? Zogby writes. ?Don?t expect Paul to endorse one of his GOP rivals, or for it to matter very much to libertarians if he did.?

Paul?s advantage is that rejecting both parties is a huge part of the tea party movement (at least before it started running its own Republicans in 2010) as well as of libertarianism. His challenge is that electability ? finding the candidate most likely to defeat Barack Obama ? has become the main thing Republicans are looking for in whichever champion they finally settle on.

Much of what Paul advocates is appealing to at least one faction of the Republican Party (mainstream, tea party, and socially conservatives), whether it?s about abortion, the definition of marriage, government regulation, foreign aid, military actions abroad, health care, or immigration.

He describes himself as ?a constitutionalist? in ways that could appeal to civil libertarians. (He advocates an end to the Patriot Act, warrantless searches, the TSA, and the ?war on drugs.?)

But it?s hard to imagine a Republican Party presidential candidate these days who would not support a constitutional ban on abortion, would cut defense spending by nearly a billion dollars, would shutter at least a half dozen departments of federal government, would leave it to religions (and not government) to define marriage, or who would end all US aid to Israel.

And while Romney beats Obama in at least a few polls, Paul does not, according to Real Clear Politics.

Still, Ron Paul keeps moving steadily toward a position of strength in the early voting ? especially in Iowa. So he may yet surprise the pundits writing him off today.

The roar of Ron Paul: Five of his unorthodox views on the economy

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Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/gop/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20111120/ts_csm/427000

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Monday, November 21, 2011

Pressure for fast action after Spain election win (Reuters)

MADRID (Reuters) ? Prime Minister elect Mariano Rajoy was under pressure on Monday to give rapid details of his policies to overcome the worst economic crisis for generations, after his center-right party won Spain's biggest election victory in 30 years.

The euro zone debt crisis claimed its fifth government victim in Sunday's election as voters savagely punished the outgoing Socialists for a crisis that has pushed unemployment to the highest rate in the European Union at 21 percent.

Under Spain's long transition process, Rajoy will not take power until around December 20 but he will have little time to bask in the huge victory for his People's Party.

There is pressure for him to calm jittery markets with some word on what are expected to be deep and painful austerity measures. Since his victory he has only said that there will be no miracles to fix the crisis.

Spaniards are resigned to a battery of measures to resuscitate the economy that could make things worse before they get better and at least initially increase unemployment, with 5 million people already out of work.

Spain, the euro zone's fourth largest economy, has been pushed closer to the kind of bailout claimed by Ireland, Greece and Portugal as its borrowing costs soared last week to untenable levels.

Rajoy has so far pointed to labor market and a financial reform as well as sweeping changes in the public sector, but has not given clear policy lines, relying instead on voter anger against the Socialists to rocket him into power.

"It will not only be demanded that Rajoy fix the economy but that he also renews political life," said right-leaning newspaper El Mundo in an editorial.

"He will have to adopt unpopular measures which will probably not be accepted either by unions or by the Socialist opposition," it added.

Spaniards blame the Socialists for reacting too late to manage a collapsed housing boom which has left the nation sliding toward its second recession in two years.

"There will be no miracles, we haven't promised them, but we have seen in other times that when things are done well, they produce results," Rajoy, 56, told rapturous supporters in his victory speech on Sunday night.

"Spain's voice must be respected again in Brussels and Frankfurt... We will stop being part of the problem and will be part of the solution," said Rajoy.

FIFTH VICTIM

Spaniards were the fifth European nation to throw out their leaders because of the spreading euro zone crisis, following Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Italy.

The People's Party (PP), formed from other rightist parties in the 1980s after Spain returned to democracy at the end of the Franco dictatorship, won the biggest majority for any party in three decades.

The PP took 186 seats in the 350-seat lower house, according to official results with all the vote counted.

The Socialists slumped to 111 seats from 169 in the outgoing parliament, their worst showing in 30 years.

MARKET FRIENDLY

Spain's stock and bond prices may initially react positively to the vote because Rajoy, a former interior minister, is seen as market friendly and pro-business, although the landslide victory was anticipated for months in opinion polls.

The nation's borrowing costs are at their highest since the euro zone was formed and yields on 10-year bonds soared last week to close to 7 percent, a level that forced other countries like Portugal and Greece to seek international bail-outs.

The Spanish Treasury heads back to the markets with debt auctions on Tuesday and Thursday this week, the first key tests of confidence in Rajoy's leadership.

"The spectre of recession and an unavoidable commitment to reduce the public deficit will stitch a straight jacket to restrict the hand of the new economy minister," said newspaper Expansion in an editorial.

Economic gloom dominated the election campaign, with more than 40 percent of young Spaniards unable to find work and a million people at risk of losing their homes to the banks.

TREASURED INSTITUTIONS

Many leftist voters are concerned Rajoy will cut back Spain's treasured national health and education systems.

Fed up with the Socialists, they turned to smaller parties or stayed away from the polls and the abstention rate was higher than in the last election in 2008.

The United Left, which includes the former communist party, won 11 seats in the lower house, its best showing since the mid-1990s and way up from the previous legislature when it had only two seats.

Small parties doubled their presence in the lower house of parliament, taking 54 seats compared with 26 in the last legislature.

When the Socialists took power in 2004 Spain was riding a construction boom fueled by cheap interest rates, infrastructure projects and foreign demand for vacation homes on the country's warm coastlines.

But the government, consumers and companies were engulfed in debt when the building sector collapsed in 2007, leaving the landscape dotted with vacant housing developments, empty airports and underused highways.

"Something's got to change here in Spain, with 5 million people on the dole, this can't go on," said Juan Antonio Fernandez, 60, a jobless Madrid construction worker who switched to the PP from the Socialists.

(Additional reporting by Tomas Cobos, Nigel Davies, Martin Roberts and; Carlos Ruano in Madrid; Editing by Barry Moody)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/world/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111121/wl_nm/us_spain_election

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Sunday, November 20, 2011

OpenSUSE is 12.1 versions old, and the .1 is important

With the sea-salt whiff of Fedora 16 still hanging in the air, we now have another updated Linux distribution based on the new 3.1 kernel. OpenSUSE 12.1 offers the GNOME 3.2 shell along with KDE, Xfce and LXDE desktop flavors should you prefer something different. There are goodies like Chromium 17 and Firefox 7 and improved server side tools including WebYaST, Horde 4 apps and the ability to run on the Amazon EC2 cloud. The source link below lists plenty more improvements and of course they're all free. Download now and debate the economics later.

OpenSUSE is 12.1 versions old, and the .1 is important originally appeared on Engadget on Fri, 18 Nov 2011 15:03:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Source: http://www.engadget.com/2011/11/18/opensuse-is-12-1-versions-old-and-the-1-is-important/

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Norfolk schools ought to call in the Superman of roads and rail (hamptonroads)

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11/20/2011 - UBS Parade Spectacular

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